1、 Industry Overview: The Rise of Silicon Carbide under the Third Generation Semiconductor Wave
Silicon carbide (SiC), as the core of third-generation semiconductor materials, has become a strategic cornerstone in fields such as new energy, power electronics, and aerospace due to its high temperature resistance, high thermal conductivity, and radiation resistance.
From 2020 to 2024, the global silicon carbide market size soared from 1.6 billion US dollars to 4.8 billion US dollars, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32%; The growth rate of the Chinese market is leading the world with an average annual growth rate of 40%. By 2024, the market size will exceed 20 billion yuan, accounting for over 35% of the global market share.
According to the "Comprehensive Survey and Investment Trend Forecast Report on China's Silicon Carbide Device Industry from 2025 to 2030" by China Research Institute Puhua Industry Research Institute, the sales of new energy vehicles in China will increase by 40% year-on-year in 2024, and the demand for standard grade silicon carbide devices for high-speed vehicles will surge, becoming the core engine of market explosion.
The demand for high-efficiency devices in photovoltaic inverters, energy storage systems, and data centers further drives the industry into a golden growth period.
2、 Industrial Chain Map and Competitive Landscape: Breakthroughs and Challenges of Domestic Substitution
1. Distribution of industrial chain value
The silicon carbide industry chain covers three major links: substrate preparation, epitaxial growth, and device manufacturing. Among them, the substrate technology barrier is the highest, accounting for 50% -60% of the cost end. 80% of the global high-end substrate market has long been monopolized by overseas giants such as Wolfspeed and ROHM. But from 2023 onwards, domestic enterprises will achieve key technological breakthroughs:
Tianke Heda and Sanan Optoelectronics are the first to mass produce 6-inch substrates, with a yield rate increased to 65%;
AnYi Semiconductor (a joint venture between Sanan and STMicroelectronics) has built the first 8-inch automotive grade silicon carbide production line in China, expected to be mass-produced in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a cost reduction of 30% compared to 6 inches.
2. International competitive landscape
American, Japanese, and European companies still occupy the technological high ground:
The United States dominates over 50% of the global market share through vertical integration, such as Wolfspeed's substrate device full chain layout;
Japan's ROHM and Mitsubishi Electric are leading in automotive grade module packaging technology;
Infineon and STMicroelectronics in Europe have improved system reliability through their "chip package integration" solution.
According to the "2024-2029 Silicon Carbide Industry Research Report" by Zhongyan Puhua, the global production capacity of silicon carbide substrates in China has reached 35% by 2024, but the localization rate of high-end products is less than 20%. Core defect control and crystal growth processes still need to be tackled.
3、 Technological evolution and cost inflection point: the leap from laboratory to mass production
1. Technology iteration drives cost reduction
Popularization of large-sized substrates: The cost of 6-inch substrates has decreased from 5000 yuan/piece in 2020 to 3000 yuan/piece in 2024; After the mass production of 8-inch substrates in 2026, the cost is expected to decrease by another 30%.
Module integration: Huawei's silicon carbide MOSFET module released in 2023 reduces switch losses by 70% and has performance comparable to international first-line products.
Breakthrough in defect control: Domestic enterprises have reduced the density of microtubes to below 0.5/cm ² by improving the PVT (Physical Vapor Transport) process, approaching international standards.
2. Critical point of cost penetration
The current price of silicon carbide devices is 3-5 times higher than that of silicon-based ones, but the demand for 800V high-voltage platforms and photovoltaic inverters in new energy vehicles is forcing the acceleration of substitution. According to calculations by Zhongyan Puhua, when the price difference shrinks to twice, the market penetration rate will reach an explosive turning point, and it is expected that the global market size of automotive silicon carbide will exceed 15 billion US dollars by 2026.
4、 Explosion of application scenarios: from new energy vehicles to the diverse landing of quantum computing
1. New energy vehicles: main battlefield and core variables
After adopting silicon carbide modules, Tesla Model 3 has increased its range by 7% and reduced system costs by 15%. BYD, NIO and other car companies have signed long-term agreements with local suppliers, forming a collaborative model of "car companies+wafer fabs". By 2024, the penetration rate of domestic automotive silicon carbide will exceed 20%, and is expected to reach 60% by 2030, driving the global automotive market size to exceed 40 billion US dollars.
2. Photovoltaics and Energy Storage: Second Growth Curve
Silicon carbide inverters can increase the efficiency of photovoltaic systems to over 99%. In 2024, China's photovoltaic installed capacity will increase by 78GW, a year-on-year increase of 154%, directly driving device demand. Huawei, Sunac and other companies are accelerating the layout of silicon carbide photovoltaic solutions.
3. Emerging fields: The imaginative space of AR and quantum computing
Meta is the first to apply silicon carbide optical waveguides to AR glasses, with a single 6-inch substrate capable of producing 2 sets of equipment. By 2024, the global AR shipment will reach 1.5 million units, corresponding to a substrate demand of 750000 pieces per year;
Quantum computing: A team from Tsinghua University has achieved a room temperature coherence time breakthrough of 1 hour for silicon carbide color center quantum bits, providing a new path for quantum communication.
5、 Investment Trends and Risk Warning: The Game between Ecological Construction and Technological Constraints
1. Investment hotspots
Substrate and Epitaxy: 8-inch mass production technology, defect control equipment (such as Crystal Growth Furnace of Jingsheng Corporation);
Vehicle grade module: packaging solution that meets AEC-Q101 certification;
Differentiation in segmented fields: UV-LED、 RF devices (such as Zhuosheng Micro 5G filters).
2. Risks and Challenges
Technical bottleneck: The localization rate of EDA tools, photoresist and other materials is less than 20%;
Overcapacity concerns: Global investment in silicon carbide projects will exceed 20 billion US dollars in 2024, and caution should be taken against redundant construction of low-end production capacity;
Long verification cycle: Vehicle grade certification takes 2-3 years, putting pressure on the company's cash flow.
6、 Strategic suggestion: Breaking through ecological synergy and differentiation
Zhongyan Puhua Industry Research Institute proposes three core strategies:
Technological breakthrough: Jointly build a "industry university research application" platform with universities, focusing on key technologies such as 8-inch substrates and RF devices;
Ecological construction: Promote the establishment of the "Silicon Carbide Industry Alliance" and connect the full chain collaboration of materials, devices, and system applications;
Differentiated competition: Second - and third tier enterprises can focus on niche markets such as photovoltaic junction boxes and industrial power supplies, avoiding direct confrontation with top companies.
Conclusion: The Winning Rule of the Golden Decade
Silicon carbide is not only a material revolution, but also the winner of the global industrial competition. Zhongyan Puhua predicts that by 2030, the size of China's silicon carbide market will exceed 120 billion yuan, and the localization rate will increase to 65%.
In this game of technology and capital, enterprises need to use technological innovation as the spear and ecological synergy as the shield in order to seize the high ground in the fierce competition.
